Blog Commentary

Headline April declines largest ever in manufacturing, industrial production, retail sales, and housing starts New unemployment remain above 2 million even nine weeks into the COVID-19 crisis. Truck freight volumes continue to recover in stages. The rail space is a tale of two markets -carload activity is weak while intermodal has

The latest economic data has been miserable. The U.S. economy is in a deep reces-sion and signs of recovery are few. In almost every sector, there has been a record-breaking decline. The labor market is in shambles, with over 30 million people out of work. Retail sales have plummeted and the industrial sector has been ham-mered. Still, green shoots are starting to emerge as the nation begins to re-open. Even in the midst of a meltdown, some companies, such as Walmart and Amazon, are adding jobs. The question is now emerging, what will the recovery look like? Will it be v-shaped, or more U-shaped, or as some Fed officials projected a W-shaped recovery, or an economy that jumps forward and stalls and jumps again repeatedly?

As the U.S. and global economies start theprocess of restarting, variables can be identified (are known) but the outcome of the variables are still unknown.

Canada: The Economy Reopens and a Long Cool Road Back BeckonsThe Canadian economy is reopening after suffering a sharp decline because of the COVID-19 virus. Economic damage from the virus was steep. The 8.2% annualized decline in the first quarter equaled the darkest days of the Great Recession. The decline only